Out-of-School Rate

 

As of 2023, globally 272 million children and youth are out of school, of which 78 million were of primary school age, 64 million of lower secondary school age and 130 million of upper secondary school age. Since 2015, when the fourth Sustainable Development Goal on education (SDG 4) was set out-of-school numbers have reduced by less than 1%.

The most affected education level is upper secondary education as 130 million students are out-of-school in that education level- 48% of the total number across all levels.

Poorer countries are falling behind. In the poorest countries, 36% of students are out of school compared to 3% in the richest countries. Almost three-quarters of the global out-of-school population is in Central and Southern Asia (34%) and sub-Saharan Africa (39%).

Globally there are more boys out of school than girls: 139 million boys to 133 million girls. This is a trend that started in 2007 and is increasing.

This website consolidates out-of-school rate information from a variety of sources to produce complete and more coherent estimates. This new model has increased the share of countries with data on out-of-school children from 62% to 98%.

We invite users to explore breakdowns by region, income group, level, and sex below. Data can be explored by country as well.

 

How are these figures calculated?

The out-of-school rate is frequently reported in two ways. It can be expressed as:

  1. A percentage of the population in the official age range for a given level of education, or
  2. The total number of children and young people out-of-school.

Computing the out-of-school rate relies on the use of administrative data capturing student enrollment by age and sex, collected and disseminated by Ministries of Education. As a direct source, these data should in theory provide a ‘gold standard’ for estimating the out-of-school rate and other enrollment indicators. However, there are challenges involved with this type of data. Many countries do not currently have the data infrastructure necessary to produce complete and reliable enrollment counts. Secondly, population estimates must be sourced separately from administrative enrollment counts resulting in inconsistencies.

Alternatively, survey data can be used to compute the out-of-school rate. Household surveys typically include questions regarding the attendance status of children and young people in the household. However, survey data have their own set of challenges. Survey providers have distinct approaches and samples, creating the possibility of inconsistencies. Household surveys are also infrequent and thus require methods that can produce estimates in between waves.

The distinct challenges faced by the two sources of data necessitate approaches that can consolidate out-of-school rate information from a variety of sources and produce complete and coherent estimates. To fulfill this need, the UIS and the GEM Report have developed a statistical model to estimate out-of-school rates. The purpose of this website is to present national, regional, and global estimates of out-of-school rates and numbers and explain the thinking behind the decisions made to address the challenges in modelling this specific indicator.

Out-of-school estimates have been updated based on revised global population estimates

Out‑of‑school population estimates depend on the overall population estimates of school‑age children, adolescents and youth. These are updated every two years by the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) in its World Population Prospects (WPP) series. The 2022 WPP, whose publication was delayed by a year due to the impact of COVID‑19, suggested that population levels had been underestimated. As the COVID‑19 pandemic had affected the smooth implementation of censuses around 2020, it was considered appropriate to wait for the release of the 2024 WPP before switching to the population estimates informed by the 2020 rounds of population censuses.

The 2024 WPP confirms that there were significant increases in population estimates compared to the 2019 WPP, which had been used in the out‑of‑school model so far. The out‑of‑school population of children is now estimated to have reached at least 272 million, a considerable increase by 21 million compared to the last reported estimate of 251 million for the same year.  The change is accounted for by two reasons:

  • new enrolment and attendance data, which retrospectively affect the previous series, account for 8 million, or 38%, of the increase; and
  • new population data account for 13 million, or the remaining 62%, of the increase.

The impact of conflict on out‑of‑school populations is being underestimated

The out‑of‑school estimation model relies on the relative stability of long‑term progression of school‑age populations through the education system to ensure that trends are consistent over time. However, this methodological strength becomes a weakness in the case of sudden changes in school enrolment and attendance patterns due to emergencies and crises.

A methodology was developed to complete the model using information generated mostly by humanitarian actors:

  • A criterion is needed for identifying the countries where emergencies and crises have the largest potential impact on school participation.
  • Information from humanitarian or other sources that indicate the potential size of the out‑of‑school population needs to be compiled and scrutinized with reference to several characteristics.

A first attempt to measure the magnitude of out-school population in crisis countries was conducted in 10 countries: Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Mali, Myanmar, Niger, State of Palestine, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan

The results shows that the  impact of the 10 most significant crises on the school participation in 2023 suggest that this out‑of‑school population is underestimated by almost 13 million, which would raise the global out‑of‑school population to 285 million.

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